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中美贸易战发酵,饲料、罗非鱼行业何去何从?危机如何化解?

2018-7-18 15:04| 发布者: 一片云| 查看: 199503| 评论: 0|原作者: GAA-Steve Hart |来自: 全球水产养殖联盟

摘要: 中国水产频道报道,全球水产养殖联盟(GAA)副总裁Steve Hart博士拥有22年水产领域的工作经验,他对美国水产行业结构和政治顶层设计有着深刻的见解。中美贸易战逐渐升级,战火燃烧至全球两大市场的水产品进出口贸易, ...
  原文作者:Steve Hart
  翻译:胡路怡

  中国水产频道报道,全球水产养殖联盟(GAA)副总裁Steve Hart博士拥有22年水产领域的工作经验,他对美国水产行业结构和政治顶层设计有着深刻的见解。中美贸易战逐渐升级,战火燃烧至全球两大市场的水产品进出口贸易,Hart博士结合当下实际情况,分析了两国压力最重的两个产业(大豆和罗非鱼)的基本形势,并对长远内如何解决争端给予了预期。


  译文如下:

  自1996年以来,我便一直投身于水产养殖业领域的工作,在这期间,我曾在专注于利用美国大豆研发生产水产养殖饲料。22年的职业生涯中,我亲身经历了许多重大的行业危机,如三文鱼养殖业爆发的传染性鲑鱼贫血症(ISA)、全球对虾养殖业的早期死亡综合征(EMS)和智利爆发的大规模赤潮灾难。不过,这些问题往往只在某一时间段了影响产业中的某一部分,我们的产业总能及时地做出调整,将负面效应将至最低程度。可是,像今天这般严重的状况我生平从未见过,两个世界大国的水产业深陷泥潭,仅仅因为一个因素——贸易战。

  在我们盘算接下来如何适应新的形势前,先评估一下迄今为止已造成的影响。先说中国对美国大豆加征的25%关税,这是中国政府对特朗普当局开打贸易战做出的第一次回击,也在第一时间影响到了水产养殖业。

  中国是美国最大的大豆出口市场,每年约25%的美产大豆卖往中国。美国的大豆种植业对中国这个单一市场的依赖性太强,任何层面上的关税都将对产业带来最直接的影响,而这个负面效应已然出现了。过去的两年间,大豆价格浮动在10美元/蒲式耳,但今年四月份,当中国宣布对美产大豆加征关税时,价格开始呈现剧烈的波动。截止7月13日,大豆价格的跌幅近20%,至8 美元/蒲式耳。除此之外,相比南美洲的竞争对手,美国出口商不得不以10%折扣价出售,以弥补中国关税造成的价格劣势。

  另一方面,在短期内,25%的关税生效后却不一定会对中国的水产养殖业带来剧烈的冲击。首先,全球市场上大豆的价格正在下跌,理论上饲料的成本也应下跌。水产业的产业链较长,上游原材料价格变动不一定反映至终端价格,如果全球大豆长期处于价格低位,饲料应当有所降价。第二个原因与大豆的上市周期有关,三月份至五月份是南美洲大豆的收获季节,而北美洲的大豆一般在九月至十月份收割。因此,在供应的高峰期,贸易战未必造成深远的影响,2018年下半年不应出现重大的供应问题。若加征关税的政策延续到了2019年,供应情况会是如何?低价潮是否还能继续支撑起南美的大豆行业?真正的危机或将爆发在供应短缺之时,这一点我们却很难预期。毋庸置疑,中美在贸易战问题上长期叫板为南美大豆种植业缔造了进入中国的良机,一旦南美大豆在中国市场站稳脚跟,即便中国放弃加征关税,美国豆农也很难夺回失去的市场份额。

  接下来,我们分析两国互怼的报复性关税,这个问题对我们水产行业的影响最为直接。国际上已有许多文章分析了贸易战对美国市场的影响,以及长期内中国如何作出应变,我个人完全同意他们的说法,不做更多的赘述。我想专门说一下罗非鱼行业,中国源源不断地向美国输送冷冻鱼片,供需高度互补,成就了今天的产业现状。而冷冻罗非鱼片的价格自2014年封顶以来一路下跌,至今已有四个年头了,特朗普当局加征的10%关税对中国罗非鱼产业来说无疑是雪上加霜。我了解到,中国的罗非鱼生产因价格低迷停滞不前,贸易战开打前,有报道称某大企业被迫关闭了多处加工厂。就在贸易战前夕的六月份,罗非鱼价格虽稍有反弹,但美方的2000亿商品征税清单公布之后,生产企业感到很大的成本压力,价格恢复的希望也变得十分渺茫。

  贸易战下,其他类别的中国水产品似乎不会受很大的冲击。中国水产品消费逐年扩大,世界其他国家的需求也在增加。大型水产品消费市场,如日本,近几年的进口总量和本地供给结构关系发生了根本性的变化。而针对罗非鱼产销所面临的问题,在这里,我想为中国水产企业推荐一个成功的案例:过去五年间,欧洲和美国对越南巴沙鱼增设了诸多门槛,进出口贸易变得非常困难,这条鱼在欧洲和美国两个市场的出口量分别下跌50%、40%。尽管巴沙鱼正渐渐失去这两大市场,越南的产业依然做的相当出色。中国已成为最大的巴沙鱼消费区,日本也在增加进口数量,越南的企业努力开拓新兴市场,减少对单一市场过度的依赖。巴沙鱼的价格近期也涨至历史的最高点,几乎比两年前高出了一倍。我强烈推荐中国生产企业学习借鉴越南巴沙鱼企业的运作管理方式,尝试模仿他们的套路,建立多元化的销售市场。

  考虑到中国罗非鱼生产企业面临的困境,当务之急,我建议先了解一下巴沙鱼成功的历史,研究越南生产企业是如何解决问题的,再审视中国的情况看看有没有更多可以利用的资源。中国拥有世界最庞大和先进的电商体系,阿里巴巴、京东等大型平台旗下还有许多分支机构,他们正努力改变年轻一代消费者的饮食习惯。像罗非鱼这样的非传统产品已具备了一定的优势属性,比如,适合预包装、易烹饪等,这些食品在中国年轻人中越来越受欢迎。我曾读到一篇文章,说的是一家外国公司正在中国市场推广高端罗非鱼产品,我思考本地生产企业是否也可以武装起自己,一点一滴从小做起争取本地市场?南方的大型罗非鱼企业没有理由不关注这些(令我欣慰的是我的中国朋友们已开始尝试做这些工作了),多元化市场应该一如既往成为中国企业的工作重心,不仅仅是中国本土市场,还有日本和非洲。

  过去十年间,我们努力推进水产业的长期可持续发展,而这突如其来的贸易战最后只会伤害我们所有人。我真心希望贸易战尽快终止,而不是发展成两个大国互抬关税的回合制游戏。那么,有没有可能使这场贸易战尽快结束?在美国,我们将于11月份举行中期选举。过去的40年期间,同一个政党控制众议院、参议院和总统府的时间共有八年之久,其中一次最长的控制期超过两年(共和党在2003至2007年间控制了三院)。主流民意显示民主党将在11月份夺回众议院的多数席位,也有一定的可能性争取到参议院的控制权。美国农场主先前大多投票给了共和党,而此番贸易战对美国农业造成的伤害将促使他们转去支持民主党。如果这种情况发生,反对加征关税的民主党将对共和党总统特朗普施加更大的压力。虽然这只是目前的猜测,但我是一个乐观主义者,我会继续秉持希望,希望在事件难以挽回之前,让我们的水产行业回归到理性和理智。

  英文原文👇

  I have beenworking in the aquaculture field at some capacity since 1996; including asignificant stint working for the U.S. soybean industry focused on the developmentof soy-based aquafeeds.  During my 22years, I have never seen a time like this, where an entire industry is impactedby a single issue the way this trade war is affecting us now.  There have been other major crises, like theISA in salmon farming, EMS in global shrimp production, or harmful algal bloomsin Chile; however, each of those issues impacted one segment of our industry ata time, and there were solutions the industry could implement to reduce thenegative effects.  That is perhaps themost disturbing aspect of this trade war; industry is completely powerless toend it at this time.  We are reliant onour governments to negotiate an end.

  As we continue tofigure out how to adapt to the fallout from this trade war, let’s evaluate whatthe impacts have been so far.  I willstart with the first tariff that impacted our industry: the 25% tax on U.S.soybeans being sold to China.  While thetariff was a reactionary tariff from the Chinese government due to tariffsenacted by the Trump Administration, it was the first tariff that directlyimpacted the aquaculture industry.

  China is thelargest export market for U.S. soybeans, with approximately 25% of the U.S.crop being exported to China on an annual basis.  Because of this major reliance on a singlemarket, any implementation of tariffs on this magnitude would be expected tohave an immediate effect; and it did. For the last two years, soybean prices were hovering around $10 USD perbushel.  These prices were holding fairlyconsistent until the tariffs were announced in April.  Since that time, they have declined byapproximately 20%, and as of July 13, were about $8 USD per bushel.  In addition to that, as a direct result ofthe Chinese tariff, U.S. soybeans are selling at a 10% discount to their SouthAmerican competitors.

  The immediateimpact on Chinese aquaculture of these tariffs should not be fairlyneutral.  First of all, as the price ofsoybeans has declined, in theory, the costs of feed should also decline;however, in reality short-term drops in ingredient prices are typically notpassed along the supply chain.  Ifsoybean prices do stay lower for the long-term, prices for feed should drop aswell.  The second reason has to do withharvest, South American soybeans are typically harvested from March to May andU.S. soybeans are harvested September to October.  As a result, the immediate impact of thistrade war hasn’t been truly felt during peak U.S. supply.  The true impact of the tariffs would comeinto play if there were any shortage in supply, but as of now, South Americajust completed harvest and the U.S. crop is projected to be very strong thisyear, so there should be no major supply concerns for the remainder of2018.  If the tariff is still in placegoing into 2019, weather in South America will go a long way in determining ifsoybean prices remain low.  Of littledoubt is the long-term implications of continued U.S./China trade war willbenefit the South American soybean farmers as they are able to capture a largerpercentage of the vast Chinese soybean market. Once that market is captured, it will be extremely difficult for U.S.soybean farmers to reclaim it, even after tariffs are removed.

  Now I will shiftto the impact of the retaliatory tariffs that have been implemented by bothU.S. and Chinese governments on seafood because they have a much more directand dire threat to our industry.  Otherarticles have focused on the impacts of the tariffs on the U.S. market and howChina can take advantage of that in the long-term, so I won’t focus on thataspect because I find myself completely agreeing with the analyses I haveread.  I will focus on the potentialimpacts to the Chinese tilapia industry, which has grown to where it is todaylargely to focus on providing frozen fillets to the U.S. market.  The 10% tariff the Trump Administration isproposing for Chinese seafood comes at just about the worst possible time forthe tilapia sector; since near record highs in 2014, prices for frozen tilapiafillet imports to the U.S. have been in decline or flat for the last fouryears.  Lower prices have hit the Chinesetilapia sector pretty hard with many reports indicating that several processingplants were beginning to shut down even before the tariffs were announced.  However, prices were just starting to showslight rebounds in June of this year before the U.S. tariffs were announced,thus dampening any positive hope of recovery. The long-term implications of a 10% cost increase to Chinese tilapiaproducers is obviously not good.

  The implicationson the rest of the Chinese seafood are likely not as bleak.  Chinese consumption of seafood continues togrow, so demand for domestic products will continue to increase, as well asdemand in other markets around the world. Large markets like Japan are increasing consumption of imported seafoodas domestic supply shortages have changed market dynamics.  Perhaps the best example of how the rest ofthe Chinese seafood industry can adapt to the essential closing of a primarymarket is Vietnamese pangasius.  Over thelast five years, both the EU and U.S. have set up increasing numbers of tradebarriers making it more difficult for Vietnamese exporters to sell into thosemarkets, as a result the volume of pangasius exports to the EU and U.S. hasdropped more than 50% and 40%, respectively. Despite the reduction of these two large markets, the Vietnamesepangasius industry is still doing quite well. China has become the largest importer of Vietnamese pangasius, anddemand is also increasing in Japan.  TheVietnamese companies have worked hard to develop these other markets in orderto reduce their reliance on markets that were creating trade barriers, as aresult, pangasius prices continue to break record highs with prices beingalmost double where they were two years ago. If they aren’t already, I would strongly recommend that Chineseproducers evaluate how the Vietnamese pangasius producers managed to diversifytheir markets and attempt to do the same.

  Considering thefact that Chinese tilapia producers have the most at stake, they should be thefirst ones to look at the success of the pangasius industry.  What are their potential solutions?  First of all, China has the most uniquee-commerce market in the world.  Globalgiants like Alibaba and JD.com, and all of their subsidiaries, are changing theway young Chinese consumers purchase and eat seafood.  Non-traditional products like tilapia arepoised for this market as it is ideal for prepackaged, easy to prepare mealsthat seems to be of increasing popularity amongst Chinese youth.  When I read articles that say foreign tilapiacompanies are going to start expending marketing efforts in China to grow apremium tilapia import market, I wonder why the domestic producers aren’t up inarms, doing every bit of marketing possible to begin capturing domesticmarkets.  There is no reason the largetilapia processors of Southern China shouldn’t begin focusing efforts on thesemarkets (and I’m happy to see that many of my friends from Southern China arealready starting to attempt this). Market diversification should continue to be a major focus for Chineseproducers; not just domestically, but also in markets like Japan, and Africa.

  AsI begin to wrap-up my thoughts about the impacts of this trade war, I look atthe future and the hope that we will soon see an end to these back and forthtariffs.  A trade war like this will onlyhurt our industry, especially as efforts to improve the long-termsustainability of the seafood sector have been growing in success over the lastdecade.  So is there a chance the tradewar will end soon?  In the U.S. we havemidterm elections coming this November. For the last 40 years, the same political party has only held control ofthe House, Senate and Presidency for eight years, and only once was thatcontrol for more than two years (Republicans controlled all three2003-2007).  Most projections show thatthe Democratic Party will take back control of the U.S. House this November,and there’s a chance they will also retake the Senate.  Considering the fact that U.S. farmers forthe most part consistently vote Republican, the negative impact of the tradewar has a significant chance to get many in the agricultural community to voteDemocratic this fall.  If that happens,there will be significant pressure put on Republican President Trump by theopposing Democratic Party to put an end to these tariffs.  While this is all speculation, I am anoptimist who will continue to maintain hope that reason and sanity will returnto our seafood industry before it is too late.

  关于GAA

  成立于1997年,全球水产养殖联盟(GAA, Global Aquaculture Alliance) 是致力于推动负责任水产养殖业发展的国际性非政府非营利组织。

  通过开发最佳水产养殖规范(BAP)第三方认证标准,GAA现已成为全球领先的水产养殖业标准制定组织。

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