文章作者：John Sackton 译/中国水产频道 郭金凤 中国水产频道独家报道，EMS是23年来墨西哥对虾养殖业者遭受的第四次重大爆发性疾病，根据最近的NFI全球海鲜营销大会的讨论结果，EMS的影响是其中最严重的一次爆发性疾病，是全行业的重大灾难。 2013年11月为止，墨西哥对美国的去头虾出口量下降了32.8％。据官方统计，随着疾病的爆发，对虾总产量预计从约10万吨下降到5.5万吨。现在看5.5万吨多少显得有些乐观。 EMS已经到达索诺拉，比锡那罗亚州发病情况更为严重，索诺拉的养殖者已经采取了更有效措施进行防治。索诺拉州的对虾产量预计将下降超过66％，而锡那罗亚州产量将下降30％至40％。2009年索诺拉州的对虾产量达到高峰值，约8.5万吨，但在2012年，因为疾病问题，很多农民转养其他品种，使对虾产量下降到3.5万吨，并有可能在2013年产量低于1.2万吨。 明年情况改善的可能性不大。三角洲蓝色水产养殖公司（Delta Blue Aquaculture）总裁、NFI会议发言者之一比尔·洪尼格（Bill Hoenig），估计2014年只有约60％的农场会继续养殖对虾，即使继续养殖也只会养一造。 墨西哥国内对虾市场虾价飙升，即使是小规模的虾也暴涨至超过4美元/磅，出口美国的批发价为4.50美元/磅。虾价达到这个水平的时候，养殖者会毫不犹豫地出虾，而不会选择继续在塘里养下去。 洪尼格说，从长远来看将会有大量养殖场合并，因为只有有能力的养殖场才能生存下去，而他们会投资收购资金不足的养殖场。 原文： Posted: Friday, January 17, 2014 Mexican shrimp production likely to fall more than expected in 2013, will stay depressed in 2014 SEAFOODNEWS.COM by John Sackton Jan 17, 2014 EMS is the fourth major disease outbreak to hit Mexican shrimp growers in the last 23 years, and according to the discussions at the recent NFI Global Seafood Marketing Conference, it will have the most severe impact yet, and is catastrophic for the industry. Imports of headless shrimp from Mexico to the US are down 32.8% through November. As the disease took hold, total aquaculture shrimp production was expected to fall from about 100,000 tons to 55,000 tons according to official statistics. Now that 55,000 ton number looks optimistic.  Total Mexican farmed shrimp production - Estimate from Conapesca-Sagarpa. 墨西哥养殖对虾总产量-墨西哥全国水产养殖和渔业委员会数据 The disease has hit Sonora much harder than Sinaloa, where farmers have taken more effective measures. In Sonora, production is expected to fall more than 66%, while in Sinaloa, production will be down between 30% and 40%. Sonora based shrimp production peaked in 2009 at around 85,000 tons, but disease issues and farmers switching to other crops have pushed that number down to 35,000 tons in 2012, and likely lower than 12,000 tons in 2013. Little improvement is expected next year. Bill Hoenig, president of Delta Blue Aquaculture and one of the speakers at the NFI conference, estimated that only about 60% of the farms will even stock next year, and those that do will only do one quick cycle. The strength of the Mexican domestic shrimp market has sent prices for even small size shrimp skyrocketing to over $4.00 a pound in Mexico, and $4.50 wholesale in the U.S. At these prices farmers will harvest small shrimp at the drop of a hat, and not take the risk of keeping shrimp in their ponds if they get the slightest whiff of problems. Over the long term, says Hoenig, there will be substantial consolidation as only those farmers who will invest in more intensive shrimp culture will be able to survive, and they will be buying up the weaker farms, who cannot invest. Further adding to pressure on the shrimp market is that Mexico has become a strong importer of shrimp given the fall off in domestic production. www.Seafood.com是北美最大的渔业信息网站，与《水产前沿》、中国水产频道已建立合作关系。 【关键字】：EMS 墨西哥养虾业 对虾养殖 中国水产频道（www.fishfirst.cn ）独家报道，转载请说明出处，违者追究法律责任， 谢谢合作。 |
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